［Objective］The characteristics of spatial heterogeneity and climate sensitivity of hydrological response changes in the Taihu Lake Basin under the influence of global warming and intense human activities were analyzed, the laws and driving mechanisms of runoff changes in the basins of reservoirs with different functions in the upper reaches of the Taihu Lake Basin were quantified, and a scientific basis was provided for ensuring the future flood control, water supply security, and ecological security in the Yangtze River Delta region.［Methods］The Shahe Reservoir Basin and Hengshan Reservoir Basin with different functional orientations in the upper reaches of the Taihu Lake Basin were taken as the research objects. A hydrological response simulation and prediction framework based on the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network and Bayesian automatic optimization algorithm was constructed. Combined with historical (2006—2021) observed rainfall and discharge data, as well as future precipitation data under the CMIP6 SSP2-4.5 scenario (2022—2037, 2038—2053), the trends and causes of runoff changes in the basins of reservoirs with different functions were quantitatively analyzed.［Results］The LSTM model exhibited excellent performance in simulating daily discharge and flood events. For the Shahe Reservoir Basin, the qualification rates of flood volume, flood peak, and peak occurrence time all reached 100%; for the Hengshan Reservoir Basin, the qualification rates of flood peak and peak occurrence time were 100%, while that of flood volume was 67%. Under the interactive influence of precipitation changes and functional reservoir operation, the daily average discharge in the Shahe Reservoir Basin showed a trend of first decreasing (from 2.51 m3/s to 1.18 m3/s) and then increasing (from 1.18 m3/s to 4.66 m3/s) during 2022—2037 and 2038—2053, with a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme high-flow events. In contrast, the daily average discharge in the Hengshan Reservoir Basin continued to decrease (from 3.14 m3/s to 2.29 m3/s, then to 0.83 m3/s), and the risk of extreme flood events was reduced.［Conclusion］Strengthening the construction of high-flow flood control and regulation systems for the Shahe Reservoir in the future, and focusing on improving the capacity to ensure the safety of ecological water supply under low-flow conditions for the Hengshan Reservoir, will be essential for addressing the hydrological response challenges of the two reservoirs. The research results provide scientific methods and basis for simulating hydrological responses in hilly reservoir basins and formulating differentiated response strategies under the background of climate change.