水土保持规划中的软决策
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SOFT POLICY-MAKING USED IN PLANNING OF SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION
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    摘要:

    软决策方法是由专家参与,确定出各个因素的重要性或权重,再进行综合评判,作出决策。这一方法的基本原理是模糊数学中的综合评判B=A*R。这里,R是由方案中的各个因子的模糊评判值组成的模糊矩阵;A是由表示各个因子重要性的权重组成的列矩阵;B是评判结果;*是运算符号。评判多个水土流失治理方案时,由专家和科研人员先评价这些方案的可能性、合理性和可行性,后通过综合评判,选择出最佳方案;评价一个总体规划时,可由专家和科研人员对涉及到的土地利用规划、林草建设规划、牲畜发展规划、农田基建规划、农业生产规划和多种经营规划等单项规划作出评价,并给出它们在总体规划中的权重,再做出该总体规划是“可行”或“不可行”的决策;从给定的数个方案中选择最佳方案时,也可先用隶属函数把农业用地、林业用地、牧业用地、水土流失治理总投资和副业收入等值转换为0.0~1.0之间的数值,组成模糊矩阵进行评判。然后通过比较,计算出各个方案的评判结果同理想方案的贴近度。贴近度最大者即为最佳方案。

    Abstract:

    The soft policy-making is a method that the experts determine the importance or the weight of each factor in a plan, then make comprehensive evaluation and the policy.‘The fundamentals of the method is comprehensive evaluation based on fuzzy maths as B=A*R, here, R is a fuzzy matrix composed by fuzzily evaluated values of each factor in the programmes A is a rank matrix composed by weights that show the important extent of each factor;B is the result from the evaluations *is an operation symbol. When we evaluate several control programmes or plans of soil loss, the first thing is to have rexperts and research workers to estimate the possibility, rationality and feasibility of these programmes,, then to choose the adoptable one through comprehensive evaluation. The evaluating of an overall plan can be done by experts and reseach workers in this way that the related land use programme, forest-grass construction programme, husbandry develop programme, capital construction on farmland programme, agricultural production programme, diverified economy programme and other single programmes,included in the olcrall plan, are evaluated and given the weights of them in the plan, the policy-making "yes" or "no" is made to the overall plan. On choosing the best one from several programmes given,at first, the memtership function can be used to transform the values of the farmland area, forest-land area, land area for livestock breeding, the cost to control the soil loss and the income from sideline production into the values between 0,0-1 .0,forming a. fuzzy matrix for evaluation. At last, the nearness of evaluated result of each programme to that of standard programme is calculated through comparing. The greater the nearness, the better the programme.

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李忠魁.水土保持规划中的软决策[J].水土保持通报,1986,(6):1-11

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  • 在线发布日期: 2014-12-01
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